Aalesund – Sarpsborg 08

Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · full time 2-4 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.35	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.99	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.85	−3.5%
Betfair (net)	3.85	−3.5%
bet365	3.80	−4.7%

€764 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.62	3.16	3.00	2.85
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.35	3.99	3.85	3.80
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.58	2.31	2.22	2.10
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.53	1.49	1.44	1.41
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.88	3.06	2.98	2.70
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.31	2.17	2.07	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.76	1.86	1.82	1.68
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	1.88	2.14	2.10	1.96
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	2.14	1.88	1.78	1.68
Both teams to score · No	2.96	3.29	3.04	2.70
Both teams to score · Yes	1.51	1.44	1.43	1.37

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.