Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08
Eliteserien, Norway · 2026-10-11 · 17:00 CET
LWLWL
DDDLWThe score model made an Aalesund win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 2:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aalesund 1.69 – 1.67 Sarpsborg 08.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund win | 38.8% | 39.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 25.1% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Sarpsborg 08 win | 38.2% | 35.3% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 66.2% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.3% | 46.4% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | 68.1% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.3% | 45.6% | +7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aalesund 20.6 / Sarpsborg 08 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.