Stoke – Middlesbrough

Championship, England · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 2-3 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.32	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.00	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.81	−4.6%
Betfair (net)	3.94	−1.3%
bet365	3.80	−4.9%

€531 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.38	1.99	1.91	1.86
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.60	4.05	3.75	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.32	4.00	3.94	3.80
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.16	1.88	1.83	1.76
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.86	2.14	2.07	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.03	3.29	3.11	2.70
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.33	1.44	1.41	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.27	2.89	2.67	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.44	1.53	1.51	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.07	2.31	2.20	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	1.94	1.76	1.72	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.