Stoke vs Middlesbrough
Championship, England · 2026-10-13 · 21:00 CET
DWWWL
WDDWWThe score model made a Middlesbrough win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stoke 1.14 – 1.39 Middlesbrough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 30.1% | 25.6% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 26.0% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Middlesbrough win | 42.0% | 48.5% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 53.3% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 32.8% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 56.6% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 36.8% | -6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stoke 57.7 / Middlesbrough 59.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.