Liverpool – Manchester City

Premier League, England · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 0-3 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.12	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.78	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.65	−3.5%
Betfair (net)	3.56	−5.8%
bet365	3.50	−7.5%

€2153 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.38	2.07	2.03	1.96
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.86	3.96	3.71	3.75
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.12	3.78	3.56	3.50
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.70	1.66	1.63	1.57
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.42	2.51	2.42	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.76	2.65	2.55	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.57	1.61	1.57	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.75	2.52	2.37	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.57	1.66	1.65	1.49
Both teams to score · No	2.62	2.74	2.54	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.62	1.58	1.57	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.