Liverpool vs Manchester City
Premier League, England · 2026-10-11 · 17:30 CET
DDWDW
WWWWWThe score model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Manchester City win — 42.3% vs 37.0% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liverpool 1.41 – 1.65 Manchester City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 31.9% | 37.0% | -5.1% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.0% | -0.2% |
| Manchester City win | 42.3% | 37.0% | +5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 60.5% | -1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 39.8% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 63.3% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 41.0% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liverpool 47.2 / Manchester City 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.