Crystal Palace – Nottingham

Premier League, England · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 3-1 (HT 2-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.92	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.64	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.57	−2.5%
Betfair (net)	2.56	−3.0%
bet365	2.45	−7.1%

€351 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.92	2.64	2.56	2.45
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.38	3.47	3.33	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.76	3.01	2.86	2.82
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.23	2.00	1.91	1.83
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.81	2.00	1.97	1.93
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.24	3.54	3.31	3.20
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.31	1.39	1.37	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.24	3.15	2.88	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.45	1.47	1.45	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.06	2.34	2.27	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	1.95	1.75	1.69	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.