Crystal Palace vs Nottingham
Premier League, England · 2026-10-11 · 15:00 CET
LLWLD
LDDWLThe score model makes a Crystal Palace win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.4% vs 73.3% implied (+3.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.26 – 1.22 Nottingham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 36.2% | 35.9% | +0.4% |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.8% | +0.6% |
| Nottingham win | 34.3% | 35.3% | -1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 47.3% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 26.7% | -3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 53.2% | -1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 31.7% | -2.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crystal Palace 47.3 / Nottingham 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.