Elche – Celta Vigo

La Liga, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · full time 0-0 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.50	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.35	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.25	−2.9%
Betfair (net)	3.18	−4.8%
bet365	3.20	−4.4%

€1787 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.85	2.45	2.37	2.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.00	3.41	3.28	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.50	3.35	3.19	3.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.80	2.02	1.96	1.88
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.25	1.98	1.93	1.88
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.02	3.58	3.42	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.49	1.39	1.36	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.97	3.17	3.00	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.51	1.46	1.44	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.42	2.31	2.22	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	1.70	1.76	1.73	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.