Elche vs Celta Vigo
La Liga, Spain · 2026-10-11 · 14:00 CET
LLDLW
LDDDWThe score model makes an Elche win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 55.1% vs 46.4% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elche 1.50 – 1.39 Celta Vigo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche win | 39.8% | 34.2% | +5.7% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 29.2% | -4.2% |
| Celta Vigo win | 35.2% | 36.7% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 46.4% | +8.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 26.6% | +6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 52.7% | +5.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 31.5% | +2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elche 32.1 / Celta Vigo 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.