J2 League 2023 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Machida	40	84	66.4	+17.6Outperforming ++	2	+6.8	+10.8	2:1 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+1.9)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.8)
2	Kusatsu	40	54	42.2	+11.8Outperforming ++	20	+10.5	+1.4	0:3 vs Kofu (+2.1)	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (-1.4)
3	Montedio Yamagata	40	67	56.3	+10.7Outperforming ++	8	+10.2	+0.5	1:2 vs Verdy (+2.1)	1:0 vs Kusatsu (-1.7)
4	Kofu	40	63	55.9	+7.1Outperforming ++	9	+6.3	+0.9	1:0 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+1.8)	0:3 vs Kusatsu (-1.9)
5	Verdy	40	72	65.0	+7.0Outperforming ++	3	-5.0	+12.0	1:2 vs Okayama (+1.7)	1:2 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.9)
6	Iwata	40	75	68.3	+6.7Outperforming ++	1	+0.3	+6.5	0:1 vs Chiba (+1.7)	2:3 vs Tokushima (-1.9)
7	V	20	36	30.5	+5.5Outperforming ++	23	+5.5	0.0	2:1 vs Varen Nagasaki-Iwata (+1.9)	1:2 vs Varen Nagasaki-Tokushima (-1.8)
8	Fujieda MYFC	40	52	48.6	+3.4Outperforming	14	-1.5	+4.9	2:0 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.3)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.6)
9	Oita Trinita	40	60	57.3	+2.7Outperforming	5	+3.3	-0.6	1:3 vs Iwaki (+1.9)	0:1 vs Mito (-1.8)
10	Pulse-Kumamoto	1	3	0.6	+2.4Outperforming	60	0.0	+2.4	1:3 vs Shimizu S (+2.4)	1:3 vs Shimizu S (2.4)
11	V-Varen Nagasaki	22	29	26.6	+2.4Outperforming	24	-0.1	+2.5	1:2 vs Verdy (+2.2)	1:0 vs Kusatsu (-1.5)
12	Pulse-Kusatsu	1	3	0.6	+2.4Outperforming	58	0.0	+2.4	1:3 vs Shimizu S (+2.4)	1:3 vs Shimizu S (2.4)
13	Pulse-Blaublitz	1	3	0.8	+2.3Outperforming	53	0.0	+2.3	0:1 vs Shimizu S (+2.2)	0:1 vs Shimizu S (2.2)
14	Varen Nagasaki-Tokushima	1	3	0.9	+2.1Outperforming	50	0.0	+2.1	1:2 vs V (+2.1)	1:2 vs V (2.1)
15	Varen Nagasaki-Tochigi SC	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	39	0.0	+1.9	1:2 vs V (+1.9)	1:2 vs V (1.9)
16	Varen Nagasaki-Renofa Yamaguchi	1	3	1.2	+1.8On expectation	33	0.0	+1.8	0:1 vs V (+1.8)	0:1 vs V (1.8)
17	Varen Nagasaki-Chiba	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	30	0.0	+1.7	0:1 vs V (+1.7)	0:1 vs V (1.7)
18	Varen Nagasaki-Verdy	1	3	1.4	+1.6On expectation	27	0.0	+1.6	1:2 vs V (+1.6)	1:2 vs V (1.6)
19	Varen Nagasaki-Machida	1	3	1.6	+1.4On expectation	26	0.0	+1.4	0:6 vs V (+1.5)	0:6 vs V (1.5)
20	Pulse-Tokushima	1	1	0.6	+0.4On expectation	61	0.0	+0.4	0:0 vs Shimizu S (+0.4)	0:0 vs Shimizu S (0.4)
21	Pulse-Kofu	1	1	0.6	+0.4On expectation	59	0.0	+0.4	0:0 vs Shimizu S (+0.4)	0:0 vs Shimizu S (0.4)
22	Pulse-Vegalta Sendai	1	1	0.9	+0.1On expectation	48	0.0	+0.1	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+0.0)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (0.0)
23	Pulse-Chiba	1	1	1.0	+0.0On expectation	47	0.0	+0.0	2:2 vs Shimizu S (+0.0)	2:2 vs Shimizu S (0.0)
24	Pulse-Mito	1	1	1.0	-0.0On expectation	44	0.0	-0.0	0:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.0)	0:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.0)
25	Okayama	40	57	57.0	-0.0On expectation	6	-1.1	+1.0	2:3 vs Verdy (+1.9)	0:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.7)
26	Pulse-Oita Trinita	1	1	1.1	-0.1On expectation	40	0.0	-0.1	0:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.1)	0:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.1)
27	Varen Nagasaki-Iwaki	1	1	1.2	-0.2On expectation	37	0.0	-0.2	0:0 vs V (+-0.2)	0:0 vs V (-0.2)
28	Varen Nagasaki-Okayama	1	1	1.2	-0.2On expectation	35	0.0	-0.2	0:0 vs V (+-0.2)	0:0 vs V (-0.2)
29	Varen Nagasaki-Oita Trinita	1	1	1.2	-0.2On expectation	34	0.0	-0.2	2:2 vs V (+-0.2)	2:2 vs V (-0.2)
30	Shimizu S	20	39	39.3	-0.3On expectation	22	-0.3	0.0	2:1 vs Pulse-Verdy (+1.5)	1:3 vs Pulse-Kumamoto (-2.2)
31	Pulse-Renofa Yamaguchi	1	0	0.5	-0.5On expectation	64	0.0	-0.5	1:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.5)	1:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.5)
32	Pulse-Omiya Ardija	1	0	0.5	-0.5On expectation	63	0.0	-0.5	4:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.5)	4:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.5)
33	Pulse-Kanazawa	1	0	0.6	-0.6On expectation	62	0.0	-0.6	3:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.6)	3:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.6)
34	Pulse-Tochigi SC	1	0	0.7	-0.7On expectation	57	0.0	-0.7	2:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.6)	2:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.6)
35	Pulse-Fujieda MYFC	1	0	0.7	-0.7On expectation	56	0.0	-0.7	5:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.7)	5:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.7)
36	Pulse-Montedio Yamagata	1	0	0.7	-0.7On expectation	55	0.0	-0.7	3:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.7)	3:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.7)
37	Varen Nagasaki-Mito	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	54	0.0	-0.8	4:0 vs V (+-0.7)	4:0 vs V (-0.7)
38	Pulse-Okayama	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	52	0.0	-0.8	1:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.8)	1:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.8)
39	Chiba	40	63	63.8	-0.8On expectation	4	+6.0	-6.8	1:3 vs Machida (+2.0)	4:1 vs Mito (-1.7)
40	Pulse-Iwaki	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	51	0.0	-0.8	9:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.8)	9:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.8)
41	Varen Nagasaki-Kusatsu	1	0	0.9	-0.9On expectation	49	0.0	-0.9	2:1 vs V (+-0.9)	2:1 vs V (-0.9)
42	Varen Nagasaki-Vegalta Sendai	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	46	0.0	-1.0	2:1 vs V (+-1.0)	2:1 vs V (-1.0)
43	Varen Nagasaki-Fujieda MYFC	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	45	0.0	-1.0	5:1 vs V (+-1.0)	5:1 vs V (-1.0)
44	Varen Nagasaki-Omiya Ardija	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	43	0.0	-1.0	2:0 vs V (+-1.0)	2:0 vs V (-1.0)
45	Varen Nagasaki-Kanazawa	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	42	0.0	-1.1	5:1 vs V (+-1.0)	5:1 vs V (-1.0)
46	Pulse-Machida	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	41	0.0	-1.1	3:2 vs Shimizu S (+-1.1)	3:2 vs Shimizu S (-1.1)
47	Pulse-Iwata	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	38	0.0	-1.2	1:0 vs Shimizu S (+-1.2)	1:0 vs Shimizu S (-1.2)
48	Pulse-Verdy	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	36	0.0	-1.2	2:1 vs Shimizu S (+-1.2)	2:1 vs Shimizu S (-1.2)
49	Varen Nagasaki-Blaublitz	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	32	0.0	-1.2	4:2 vs V (+-1.2)	4:2 vs V (-1.2)
50	Varen Nagasaki-Montedio Yamagata	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	31	0.0	-1.3	3:2 vs V (+-1.3)	3:2 vs V (-1.3)
51	Varen Nagasaki-Kofu	1	0	1.4	-1.4On expectation	29	0.0	-1.4	2:1 vs V (+-1.4)	2:1 vs V (-1.4)
52	Varen Nagasaki-Kumamoto	1	0	1.4	-1.4On expectation	28	0.0	-1.4	4:1 vs V (+-1.4)	4:1 vs V (-1.4)
53	Blaublitz	40	48	49.5	-1.5On expectation	13	-8.1	+6.6	0:1 vs Machida (+2.1)	0:1 vs Renofa Yamaguchi (-1.6)
54	Varen Nagasaki-Iwata	1	0	1.7	-1.7On expectation	25	0.0	-1.7	2:1 vs V (+-1.7)	2:1 vs V (-1.7)
55	Tokushima	40	45	47.4	-2.4Underperforming	16	-4.1	+1.8	2:3 vs Iwata (+2.2)	0:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.5)
56	Renofa Yamaguchi	40	41	43.9	-2.9Underperforming	19	+0.4	-3.3	1:0 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.0)	0:3 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.4)
57	Mito	40	46	50.0	-4.0Underperforming	12	-5.4	+1.4	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (+2.1)	1:2 vs Kusatsu (-1.7)
58	Shimizu S-Pulse	22	35	40.2	-5.2Underperforming −−	21	+0.8	-6.0	0:1 vs Verdy (+1.6)	2:0 vs Fujieda MYFC (-2.1)
59	Tochigi SC	40	41	47.3	-6.3Underperforming −−	17	+3.4	-9.7	0:1 vs Machida (+2.0)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.4)
60	Kumamoto	40	46	53.8	-7.8Underperforming −−	11	-8.6	+0.8	2:0 vs Kofu (+1.7)	0:2 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.8)
61	Vegalta Sendai	40	47	55.7	-8.7Underperforming −−	10	-7.2	-1.5	0:2 vs Verdy (+1.9)	2:3 vs Kanazawa (-1.9)
62	Omiya Ardija	40	39	48.1	-9.1Underperforming −−	15	-2.9	-6.2	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (+2.0)	1:5 vs Iwaki (-1.6)
63	Iwaki	40	46	57.0	-10.9Underperforming −−	7	-9.3	-1.6	1:5 vs Omiya Ardija (+1.9)	3:0 vs Kanazawa (-2.0)
64	Kanazawa	40	35	46.6	-11.6Underperforming −−	18	-3.5	-8.1	3:0 vs Iwaki (+2.2)	0:1 vs Tokushima (-1.7)