J2 League 2023 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Machida	42	87	69.0	+17.9Outperforming ++	3	+6.8	+11.1	2:1 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+1.9)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.8)
2	Kusatsu	42	57	43.7	+13.3Outperforming ++	22	+10.5	+2.8	1:3 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.4)	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (-1.4)
3	Montedio Yamagata	42	67	58.3	+8.7Outperforming ++	9	+10.2	-1.5	1:2 vs Verdy (+2.1)	1:0 vs Kusatsu (-1.7)
4	V-Varen Nagasaki	42	65	57.1	+7.9Outperforming ++	12	+5.4	+2.5	1:2 vs Verdy (+2.2)	1:2 vs Tokushima (-1.8)
5	Verdy	42	75	67.6	+7.4Outperforming ++	4	-5.0	+12.4	1:2 vs Okayama (+1.7)	1:2 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.9)
6	Kofu	42	64	57.9	+6.1Outperforming ++	10	+6.3	-0.1	1:0 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+1.8)	0:3 vs Kusatsu (-1.9)
7	Iwata	42	75	71.1	+3.9Outperforming	2	+0.3	+3.6	0:1 vs Chiba (+1.7)	2:3 vs Tokushima (-1.9)
8	Oita Trinita	42	62	59.6	+2.4Outperforming	6	+3.3	-0.9	1:3 vs Iwaki (+1.9)	0:1 vs Mito (-1.8)
9	Fujieda MYFC	42	52	50.3	+1.7On expectation	16	-1.5	+3.3	2:0 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.3)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.6)
10	Chiba	42	67	66.1	+0.9On expectation	5	+6.0	-5.1	1:3 vs Machida (+2.0)	4:1 vs Mito (-1.7)
11	Tokushima	42	49	48.8	+0.2On expectation	19	-4.1	+4.3	2:3 vs Iwata (+2.2)	0:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.5)
12	Blaublitz	42	51	51.5	-0.5On expectation	15	-8.1	+7.6	0:1 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.2)	0:1 vs Renofa Yamaguchi (-1.6)
13	Okayama	42	58	59.1	-1.1On expectation	7	-1.1	+0.0	2:3 vs Verdy (+1.9)	0:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.7)
14	Renofa Yamaguchi	42	44	45.6	-1.6On expectation	21	+0.4	-2.0	1:0 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.0)	0:3 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.4)
15	Mito	42	47	51.8	-4.8Underperforming	14	-5.4	+0.6	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (+2.1)	1:2 vs Kusatsu (-1.7)
16	Tochigi SC	42	44	49.1	-5.1Underperforming −−	18	+3.4	-8.5	0:1 vs Machida (+2.0)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.4)
17	Shimizu S-Pulse	42	74	79.5	-5.5Underperforming −−	1	+0.5	-6.0	0:1 vs Verdy (+1.6)	1:3 vs Kumamoto (-2.2)
18	Kumamoto	42	49	55.8	-6.8Underperforming −−	13	-8.6	+1.8	1:3 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.4)	0:2 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.8)
19	Vegalta Sendai	42	48	57.7	-9.7Underperforming −−	11	-7.2	-2.5	0:2 vs Verdy (+1.9)	2:3 vs Kanazawa (-1.9)
20	Omiya Ardija	42	39	49.6	-10.6Underperforming −−	17	-2.9	-7.7	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (+2.0)	1:5 vs Iwaki (-1.6)
21	Iwaki	42	47	59.0	-11.9Underperforming −−	8	-9.3	-2.6	1:5 vs Omiya Ardija (+1.9)	3:0 vs Kanazawa (-2.0)
22	Kanazawa	42	35	48.2	-13.2Underperforming −−	20	-3.5	-9.7	3:0 vs Iwaki (+2.2)	0:1 vs Tokushima (-1.7)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Machida	42	87	69.0	+17.9Outperforming ++	3	+6.8	+11.1	2:1 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+1.9)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.8)
2	Kusatsu	42	57	43.7	+13.3Outperforming ++	22	+10.5	+2.8	1:3 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.4)	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (-1.4)
3	Montedio Yamagata	42	67	58.3	+8.7Outperforming ++	9	+10.2	-1.5	1:2 vs Verdy (+2.1)	1:0 vs Kusatsu (-1.7)
4	V-Varen Nagasaki	42	65	57.1	+7.9Outperforming ++	12	+5.4	+2.5	1:2 vs Verdy (+2.2)	1:2 vs Tokushima (-1.8)
5	Verdy	42	75	67.6	+7.4Outperforming ++	4	-5.0	+12.4	1:2 vs Okayama (+1.7)	1:2 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.9)
6	Kofu	42	64	57.9	+6.1Outperforming ++	10	+6.3	-0.1	1:0 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+1.8)	0:3 vs Kusatsu (-1.9)
7	Iwata	42	75	71.1	+3.9Outperforming	2	+0.3	+3.6	0:1 vs Chiba (+1.7)	2:3 vs Tokushima (-1.9)
8	Oita Trinita	42	62	59.6	+2.4Outperforming	6	+3.3	-0.9	1:3 vs Iwaki (+1.9)	0:1 vs Mito (-1.8)
9	Fujieda MYFC	42	52	50.3	+1.7On expectation	16	-1.5	+3.3	2:0 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.3)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.6)
10	Chiba	42	67	66.1	+0.9On expectation	5	+6.0	-5.1	1:3 vs Machida (+2.0)	4:1 vs Mito (-1.7)
11	Tokushima	42	49	48.8	+0.2On expectation	19	-4.1	+4.3	2:3 vs Iwata (+2.2)	0:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.5)
12	Blaublitz	42	51	51.5	-0.5On expectation	15	-8.1	+7.6	0:1 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.2)	0:1 vs Renofa Yamaguchi (-1.6)
13	Okayama	42	58	59.1	-1.1On expectation	7	-1.1	+0.0	2:3 vs Verdy (+1.9)	0:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.7)
14	Renofa Yamaguchi	42	44	45.6	-1.6On expectation	21	+0.4	-2.0	1:0 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.0)	0:3 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.4)
15	Mito	42	47	51.8	-4.8Underperforming	14	-5.4	+0.6	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (+2.1)	1:2 vs Kusatsu (-1.7)
16	Tochigi SC	42	44	49.1	-5.1Underperforming −−	18	+3.4	-8.5	0:1 vs Machida (+2.0)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.4)
17	Shimizu S-Pulse	42	74	79.5	-5.5Underperforming −−	1	+0.5	-6.0	0:1 vs Verdy (+1.6)	1:3 vs Kumamoto (-2.2)
18	Kumamoto	42	49	55.8	-6.8Underperforming −−	13	-8.6	+1.8	1:3 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.4)	0:2 vs Fujieda MYFC (-1.8)
19	Vegalta Sendai	42	48	57.7	-9.7Underperforming −−	11	-7.2	-2.5	0:2 vs Verdy (+1.9)	2:3 vs Kanazawa (-1.9)
20	Omiya Ardija	42	39	49.6	-10.6Underperforming −−	17	-2.9	-7.7	0:1 vs Oita Trinita (+2.0)	1:5 vs Iwaki (-1.6)
21	Iwaki	42	47	59.0	-11.9Underperforming −−	8	-9.3	-2.6	1:5 vs Omiya Ardija (+1.9)	3:0 vs Kanazawa (-2.0)
22	Kanazawa	42	35	48.2	-13.2Underperforming −−	20	-3.5	-9.7	3:0 vs Iwaki (+2.2)	0:1 vs Tokushima (-1.7)