J2 League 2021 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Iwata	42	91	75.4	+15.6Outperforming ++	1	+7.2	+8.4	3:4 vs Kyoto (+1.6)	1:2 vs Renofa Yamaguchi (-2.1)
2	Kofu	42	80	64.7	+15.3Outperforming ++	6	+11.5	+3.8	2:0 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.0)	2:1 vs Sagamihara (-1.8)
3	Kyoto	42	84	72.8	+11.2Outperforming ++	2	+6.8	+4.3	0:1 vs Albirex Niigata (+1.7)	3:0 vs Kofu (-1.6)
4	V-Varen Nagasaki	42	78	68.2	+9.8Outperforming ++	4	+2.9	+6.9	0:2 vs Kyoto (+1.9)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.7)
5	Machida	42	72	62.7	+9.3Outperforming ++	7	-4.2	+13.5	1:3 vs Iwata (+2.0)	0:1 vs Giravanz Kitakyushu (-1.9)
6	Ryukyu	42	65	55.8	+9.2Outperforming ++	12	+6.0	+3.3	1:0 vs Iwata (+1.9)	0:1 vs Sagamihara (-2.0)
7	Chiba	42	66	58.9	+7.1Outperforming ++	9	-1.0	+8.1	0:1 vs Kanazawa (+1.9)	1:0 vs Sagamihara (-1.8)
8	Okayama	42	59	55.3	+3.7Outperforming	13	-6.2	+9.9	0:1 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.2)	0:1 vs Kusatsu (-1.6)
9	Verdy	42	58	54.9	+3.1Outperforming	14	+2.0	+1.1	1:2 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.3)	2:1 vs Yamaga (-1.7)
10	Mito	42	59	57.6	+1.4On expectation	10	-1.6	+3.0	0:1 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.0)	0:3 vs Blaublitz (-1.9)
11	Albirex Niigata	42	68	67.5	+0.5On expectation	5	+1.8	-1.3	1:0 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.8)	0:1 vs Okayama (-1.9)
12	Montedio Yamagata	42	68	69.3	-1.3On expectation	3	-3.4	+2.1	1:2 vs Iwata (+1.8)	1:2 vs Verdy (-2.1)
13	Sagamihara	42	38	40.5	-2.5Underperforming	22	-1.6	-0.8	0:1 vs Ryukyu (+2.2)	0:1 vs Ehime (-1.4)
14	Renofa Yamaguchi	42	43	45.5	-2.5Underperforming	19	-1.0	-1.5	1:2 vs Iwata (+2.3)	0:1 vs Giravanz Kitakyushu (-1.4)
15	Blaublitz	42	47	50.8	-3.8Underperforming	16	-7.7	+3.9	0:3 vs Mito (+2.1)	1:4 vs Yamaga (-1.6)
16	Kusatsu	42	41	46.9	-5.9Underperforming −−	18	-1.2	-4.8	0:1 vs Tochigi SC (+1.9)	0:2 vs Giravanz Kitakyushu (-1.5)
17	Tochigi SC	42	45	52.0	-7.0Underperforming −−	15	-8.3	+1.3	1:2 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.1)	1:2 vs Giravanz Kitakyushu (-1.8)
18	Ehime	42	35	42.3	-7.3Underperforming −−	21	-10.5	+3.2	0:1 vs Omiya Ardija (+2.3)	1:2 vs Sagamihara (-1.5)
19	Giravanz Kitakyushu	42	35	44.2	-9.2Underperforming −−	20	-8.0	-1.2	0:1 vs Machida (+2.2)	0:2 vs Ehime (-1.5)
20	Kanazawa	42	41	57.6	-16.6Underperforming −−	11	-7.9	-8.7	1:0 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.0)	0:1 vs Renofa Yamaguchi (-1.7)
21	Yamaga	42	34	50.6	-16.6Underperforming −−	17	-5.3	-11.3	2:1 vs Verdy (+1.9)	3:1 vs Ehime (-1.6)
22	Omiya Ardija	42	42	61.2	-19.2Underperforming −−	8	-9.3	-9.9	4:0 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.8)	0:1 vs Ehime (-2.1)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Iwata	42	91	75.4	+15.6Outperforming ++	1	+7.2	+8.4	3:4 vs Kyoto (+1.6)	1:2 vs Renofa Yamaguchi (-2.1)
2	Kofu	42	80	64.7	+15.3Outperforming ++	6	+11.5	+3.8	2:0 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.0)	2:1 vs Sagamihara (-1.8)
3	Kyoto	42	84	72.8	+11.2Outperforming ++	2	+6.8	+4.3	0:1 vs Albirex Niigata (+1.7)	3:0 vs Kofu (-1.6)
4	V-Varen Nagasaki	42	78	68.2	+9.8Outperforming ++	4	+2.9	+6.9	0:2 vs Kyoto (+1.9)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.7)
5	Machida	42	72	62.7	+9.3Outperforming ++	7	-4.2	+13.5	1:3 vs Iwata (+2.0)	0:1 vs Giravanz Kitakyushu (-1.9)
6	Ryukyu	42	65	55.8	+9.2Outperforming ++	12	+6.0	+3.3	1:0 vs Iwata (+1.9)	0:1 vs Sagamihara (-2.0)
7	Chiba	42	66	58.9	+7.1Outperforming ++	9	-1.0	+8.1	0:1 vs Kanazawa (+1.9)	1:0 vs Sagamihara (-1.8)
8	Okayama	42	59	55.3	+3.7Outperforming	13	-6.2	+9.9	0:1 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.2)	0:1 vs Kusatsu (-1.6)
9	Verdy	42	58	54.9	+3.1Outperforming	14	+2.0	+1.1	1:2 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.3)	2:1 vs Yamaga (-1.7)
10	Mito	42	59	57.6	+1.4On expectation	10	-1.6	+3.0	0:1 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.0)	0:3 vs Blaublitz (-1.9)
11	Albirex Niigata	42	68	67.5	+0.5On expectation	5	+1.8	-1.3	1:0 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.8)	0:1 vs Okayama (-1.9)
12	Montedio Yamagata	42	68	69.3	-1.3On expectation	3	-3.4	+2.1	1:2 vs Iwata (+1.8)	1:2 vs Verdy (-2.1)
13	Sagamihara	42	38	40.5	-2.5Underperforming	22	-1.6	-0.8	0:1 vs Ryukyu (+2.2)	0:1 vs Ehime (-1.4)
14	Renofa Yamaguchi	42	43	45.5	-2.5Underperforming	19	-1.0	-1.5	1:2 vs Iwata (+2.3)	0:1 vs Giravanz Kitakyushu (-1.4)
15	Blaublitz	42	47	50.8	-3.8Underperforming	16	-7.7	+3.9	0:3 vs Mito (+2.1)	1:4 vs Yamaga (-1.6)
16	Kusatsu	42	41	46.9	-5.9Underperforming −−	18	-1.2	-4.8	0:1 vs Tochigi SC (+1.9)	0:2 vs Giravanz Kitakyushu (-1.5)
17	Tochigi SC	42	45	52.0	-7.0Underperforming −−	15	-8.3	+1.3	1:2 vs Montedio Yamagata (+2.1)	1:2 vs Giravanz Kitakyushu (-1.8)
18	Ehime	42	35	42.3	-7.3Underperforming −−	21	-10.5	+3.2	0:1 vs Omiya Ardija (+2.3)	1:2 vs Sagamihara (-1.5)
19	Giravanz Kitakyushu	42	35	44.2	-9.2Underperforming −−	20	-8.0	-1.2	0:1 vs Machida (+2.2)	0:2 vs Ehime (-1.5)
20	Kanazawa	42	41	57.6	-16.6Underperforming −−	11	-7.9	-8.7	1:0 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.0)	0:1 vs Renofa Yamaguchi (-1.7)
21	Yamaga	42	34	50.6	-16.6Underperforming −−	17	-5.3	-11.3	2:1 vs Verdy (+1.9)	3:1 vs Ehime (-1.6)
22	Omiya Ardija	42	42	61.2	-19.2Underperforming −−	8	-9.3	-9.9	4:0 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.8)	0:1 vs Ehime (-2.1)