J2 League 2022 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Yokohama FC	42	80	65.5	+14.5Outperforming ++	3	+8.5	+6.0	0:1 vs Machida (+2.0)	2:3 vs Kanazawa (-2.1)
2	Albirex Niigata	42	84	70.9	+13.1Outperforming ++	1	+12.4	+0.7	2:1 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.6)	2:3 vs Okayama (-1.9)
3	Okayama	42	72	59.4	+12.6Outperforming ++	13	+9.6	+3.0	2:3 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.1)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-2.0)
4	Blaublitz	42	56	45.2	+10.8Outperforming ++	20	-0.3	+11.0	1:2 vs Okayama (+2.2)	0:1 vs Kusatsu (-1.5)
5	Kumamoto	42	67	59.1	+7.9Outperforming ++	14	-2.0	+9.9	2:0 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+2.0)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.9)
6	Oita Trinita	42	66	59.4	+6.6Outperforming ++	12	+2.3	+4.3	0:3 vs Chiba (+2.1)	1:0 vs Ryukyu (-1.7)
7	Renofa Yamaguchi	42	50	47.2	+2.8Outperforming	18	+5.5	-2.7	0:1 vs Machida (+2.1)	2:3 vs Ryukyu (-1.5)
8	Vegalta Sendai	42	63	60.6	+2.4Outperforming	8	-2.6	+5.0	0:2 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+2.1)	2:3 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.9)
9	Verdy	42	61	59.9	+1.1On expectation	11	+3.1	-2.0	2:1 vs Machida (+1.8)	0:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.8)
10	Chiba	42	61	60.3	+0.7On expectation	9	-2.7	+3.5	1:2 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.0)	2:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.9)
11	Kanazawa	42	52	51.6	+0.4On expectation	15	-5.2	+5.6	2:3 vs Yokohama FC (+2.3)	1:2 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.6)
12	Tochigi SC	42	49	49.0	0.0On expectation	16	-4.5	+4.5	1:0 vs Machida (+2.2)	3:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.5)
13	Tokushima	42	62	62.8	-0.8On expectation	6	+1.5	-2.3	0:2 vs Machida (+1.8)	0:1 vs Tochigi SC (-1.7)
14	Montedio Yamagata	42	64	65.0	-0.9On expectation	4	+2.3	-3.2	0:1 vs Tokushima (+1.8)	0:1 vs Kusatsu (-1.8)
15	Kusatsu	42	42	45.7	-3.7Underperforming	19	-3.1	-0.6	1:0 vs Vegalta Sendai (+2.1)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.5)
16	Omiya Ardija	42	43	48.9	-5.9Underperforming −−	17	-1.5	-4.4	2:1 vs Chiba (+2.2)	0:1 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.9)
17	V-Varen Nagasaki	42	56	62.0	-6.0Underperforming −−	7	-12.7	+6.7	0:1 vs Chiba (+1.8)	0:2 vs Vegalta Sendai (-1.8)
18	Mito	42	54	60.0	-6.0Underperforming −−	10	-3.0	-3.0	2:1 vs Kofu (+2.0)	1:0 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.9)
19	Ryukyu	42	37	44.3	-7.3Underperforming −−	21	-6.8	-0.6	2:0 vs Kumamoto (+2.1)	1:2 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.6)
20	Grulla Morioka	42	34	42.7	-8.7Underperforming −−	22	-8.4	-0.3	1:0 vs Kofu (+2.3)	0:1 vs Ryukyu (-1.5)
21	Kofu	42	48	63.1	-15.1Underperforming −−	5	-6.8	-8.3	1:2 vs Machida (+2.0)	1:0 vs Grulla Morioka (-2.0)
22	Machida	42	51	67.2	-16.2Underperforming −−	2	-8.0	-8.2	0:3 vs Vegalta Sendai (+1.5)	1:0 vs Tochigi SC (-1.9)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Yokohama FC	42	80	65.5	+14.5Outperforming ++	3	+8.5	+6.0	0:1 vs Machida (+2.0)	2:3 vs Kanazawa (-2.1)
2	Albirex Niigata	42	84	70.9	+13.1Outperforming ++	1	+12.4	+0.7	2:1 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.6)	2:3 vs Okayama (-1.9)
3	Okayama	42	72	59.4	+12.6Outperforming ++	13	+9.6	+3.0	2:3 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.1)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-2.0)
4	Blaublitz	42	56	45.2	+10.8Outperforming ++	20	-0.3	+11.0	1:2 vs Okayama (+2.2)	0:1 vs Kusatsu (-1.5)
5	Kumamoto	42	67	59.1	+7.9Outperforming ++	14	-2.0	+9.9	2:0 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+2.0)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.9)
6	Oita Trinita	42	66	59.4	+6.6Outperforming ++	12	+2.3	+4.3	0:3 vs Chiba (+2.1)	1:0 vs Ryukyu (-1.7)
7	Renofa Yamaguchi	42	50	47.2	+2.8Outperforming	18	+5.5	-2.7	0:1 vs Machida (+2.1)	2:3 vs Ryukyu (-1.5)
8	Vegalta Sendai	42	63	60.6	+2.4Outperforming	8	-2.6	+5.0	0:2 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+2.1)	2:3 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.9)
9	Verdy	42	61	59.9	+1.1On expectation	11	+3.1	-2.0	2:1 vs Machida (+1.8)	0:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.8)
10	Chiba	42	61	60.3	+0.7On expectation	9	-2.7	+3.5	1:2 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.0)	2:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.9)
11	Kanazawa	42	52	51.6	+0.4On expectation	15	-5.2	+5.6	2:3 vs Yokohama FC (+2.3)	1:2 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.6)
12	Tochigi SC	42	49	49.0	0.0On expectation	16	-4.5	+4.5	1:0 vs Machida (+2.2)	3:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.5)
13	Tokushima	42	62	62.8	-0.8On expectation	6	+1.5	-2.3	0:2 vs Machida (+1.8)	0:1 vs Tochigi SC (-1.7)
14	Montedio Yamagata	42	64	65.0	-0.9On expectation	4	+2.3	-3.2	0:1 vs Tokushima (+1.8)	0:1 vs Kusatsu (-1.8)
15	Kusatsu	42	42	45.7	-3.7Underperforming	19	-3.1	-0.6	1:0 vs Vegalta Sendai (+2.1)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.5)
16	Omiya Ardija	42	43	48.9	-5.9Underperforming −−	17	-1.5	-4.4	2:1 vs Chiba (+2.2)	0:1 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.9)
17	V-Varen Nagasaki	42	56	62.0	-6.0Underperforming −−	7	-12.7	+6.7	0:1 vs Chiba (+1.8)	0:2 vs Vegalta Sendai (-1.8)
18	Mito	42	54	60.0	-6.0Underperforming −−	10	-3.0	-3.0	2:1 vs Kofu (+2.0)	1:0 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.9)
19	Ryukyu	42	37	44.3	-7.3Underperforming −−	21	-6.8	-0.6	2:0 vs Kumamoto (+2.1)	1:2 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.6)
20	Grulla Morioka	42	34	42.7	-8.7Underperforming −−	22	-8.4	-0.3	1:0 vs Kofu (+2.3)	0:1 vs Ryukyu (-1.5)
21	Kofu	42	48	63.1	-15.1Underperforming −−	5	-6.8	-8.3	1:2 vs Machida (+2.0)	1:0 vs Grulla Morioka (-2.0)
22	Machida	42	51	67.2	-16.2Underperforming −−	2	-8.0	-8.2	0:3 vs Vegalta Sendai (+1.5)	1:0 vs Tochigi SC (-1.9)