J2 League 2022 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Albirex Niigata	41	83	69.2	+13.8Outperforming ++	1	+12.4	+1.4	2:1 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+1.6)	2:3 vs Okayama (-1.9)
2	Yokohama FC	41	77	64.0	+13.0Outperforming ++	3	+8.5	+4.5	0:1 vs Machida (+2.0)	2:3 vs Kanazawa (-2.1)
3	Okayama	41	71	58.1	+12.9Outperforming ++	12	+9.6	+3.2	2:3 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.1)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-2.0)
4	Blaublitz	41	55	44.3	+10.7Outperforming ++	19	-0.3	+10.9	1:2 vs Okayama (+2.2)	0:1 vs Kusatsu (-1.5)
5	Oita Trinita	41	66	58.3	+7.7Outperforming ++	11	+2.3	+5.4	0:3 vs Chiba (+2.1)	1:0 vs Ryukyu (-1.7)
6	V-Varen Nagasaki	21	36	29.3	+6.7Outperforming ++	23	0.0	+6.7	0:1 vs Chiba (+1.8)	2:0 vs Kumamoto (-1.7)
7	Kumamoto	41	64	57.6	+6.3Outperforming ++	13	-2.0	+8.3	2:0 vs V-Varen Nagasaki (+2.0)	1:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.9)
8	Varen Nagasaki-Vegalta Sendai	1	3	0.9	+2.1Outperforming	40	0.0	+2.1	0:2 vs V (+2.1)	0:2 vs V (2.1)
9	Varen Nagasaki-Ryukyu	1	3	0.9	+2.1Outperforming	41	0.0	+2.1	2:3 vs V (+2.1)	2:3 vs V (2.1)
10	Varen Nagasaki-Renofa Yamaguchi	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	34	0.0	+1.9	0:1 vs V (+1.9)	0:1 vs V (1.9)
11	Varen Nagasaki-Kanazawa	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	33	0.0	+1.9	0:1 vs V (+1.9)	0:1 vs V (1.9)
12	Varen Nagasaki-Kofu	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	32	0.0	+1.9	1:2 vs V (+1.9)	1:2 vs V (1.9)
13	Varen Nagasaki-Chiba	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	28	0.0	+1.7	0:2 vs V (+1.7)	0:2 vs V (1.7)
14	Varen Nagasaki-Kumamoto	1	3	1.4	+1.6On expectation	27	0.0	+1.6	1:3 vs V (+1.6)	1:3 vs V (1.6)
15	Varen Nagasaki-Yokohama FC	1	3	1.6	+1.4On expectation	25	0.0	+1.4	0:2 vs V (+1.4)	0:2 vs V (1.4)
16	Varen Nagasaki-Tokushima	1	3	1.6	+1.4On expectation	26	0.0	+1.4	1:2 vs V (+1.5)	1:2 vs V (1.5)
17	Verdy	41	60	59.0	+1.0On expectation	9	+3.1	-2.1	2:1 vs Machida (+1.8)	0:2 vs Blaublitz (-1.8)
18	Renofa Yamaguchi	41	47	46.0	+1.0On expectation	17	+5.5	-4.5	0:1 vs Machida (+2.1)	2:3 vs Ryukyu (-1.5)
19	Varen Nagasaki-Grulla Morioka	1	1	0.7	+0.3On expectation	44	0.0	+0.3	2:2 vs V (+0.4)	2:2 vs V (0.4)
20	Vegalta Sendai	41	60	59.7	+0.3On expectation	7	-2.6	+3.0	2:3 vs Kofu (+2.0)	2:3 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.9)
21	Varen Nagasaki-Blaublitz	1	1	0.9	+0.1On expectation	43	0.0	+0.1	0:0 vs V (+0.1)	0:0 vs V (0.1)
22	Tochigi SC	41	48	47.9	+0.1On expectation	16	-4.5	+4.6	1:0 vs Machida (+2.2)	3:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.5)
23	Varen Nagasaki-Verdy	1	1	1.0	+0.0On expectation	39	0.0	+0.0	1:1 vs V (+0.0)	1:1 vs V (0.0)
24	Varen Nagasaki-Omiya Ardija	1	1	1.0	-0.0On expectation	38	0.0	-0.0	0:0 vs V (+-0.0)	0:0 vs V (-0.0)
25	Varen Nagasaki-Tochigi SC	1	1	1.1	-0.1On expectation	35	0.0	-0.1	1:1 vs V (+-0.1)	1:1 vs V (-0.1)
26	Varen Nagasaki-Montedio Yamagata	1	1	1.1	-0.1On expectation	31	0.0	-0.1	1:1 vs V (+-0.1)	1:1 vs V (-0.1)
27	Varen Nagasaki-Okayama	1	1	1.2	-0.2On expectation	30	0.0	-0.2	0:0 vs V (+-0.2)	0:0 vs V (-0.2)
28	Varen Nagasaki-Albirex Niigata	1	1	1.8	-0.8On expectation	24	0.0	-0.8	2:2 vs V (+-0.8)	2:2 vs V (-0.8)
29	Montedio Yamagata	41	63	63.8	-0.8On expectation	4	+2.3	-3.1	0:1 vs Tokushima (+1.8)	0:1 vs Kusatsu (-1.8)
30	Varen Nagasaki-Kusatsu	1	0	0.9	-0.9On expectation	42	0.0	-0.9	2:0 vs V (+-0.9)	2:0 vs V (-0.9)
31	Chiba	41	58	59.0	-1.0On expectation	8	-2.7	+1.7	1:2 vs Albirex Niigata (+2.0)	2:1 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.9)
32	Varen Nagasaki-Oita Trinita	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	37	0.0	-1.1	4:1 vs V (+-1.1)	4:1 vs V (-1.1)
33	Varen Nagasaki-Mito	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	36	0.0	-1.1	1:0 vs V (+-1.1)	1:0 vs V (-1.1)
34	Varen Nagasaki-Machida	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	29	0.0	-1.3	1:0 vs V (+-1.3)	1:0 vs V (-1.3)
35	Kanazawa	41	49	50.4	-1.4On expectation	14	-5.2	+3.8	2:3 vs Yokohama FC (+2.3)	1:2 vs Omiya Ardija (-1.6)
36	Tokushima	41	59	61.2	-2.2Underperforming	6	+1.5	-3.7	0:2 vs Machida (+1.8)	0:1 vs Tochigi SC (-1.7)
37	Kusatsu	41	42	44.8	-2.8Underperforming	18	-3.1	+0.3	1:0 vs Vegalta Sendai (+2.1)	0:1 vs Blaublitz (-1.5)
38	Mito	41	54	58.9	-4.9Underperforming	10	-3.0	-1.9	2:1 vs Kofu (+2.0)	1:0 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.9)
39	Omiya Ardija	41	42	47.9	-5.9Underperforming −−	15	-1.5	-4.4	2:1 vs Chiba (+2.2)	0:1 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.9)
40	Grulla Morioka	41	33	42.1	-9.1Underperforming −−	21	-8.4	-0.6	1:0 vs Kofu (+2.3)	0:1 vs Ryukyu (-1.5)
41	Ryukyu	41	34	43.4	-9.4Underperforming −−	20	-6.8	-2.6	2:0 vs Kumamoto (+2.1)	1:2 vs Grulla Morioka (-1.6)
42	V	21	20	32.7	-12.7Underperforming −−	22	-12.7	0.0	1:0 vs Varen Nagasaki-Machida (+1.6)	0:2 vs Varen Nagasaki-Vegalta Sendai (-1.8)
43	Machida	41	51	65.9	-14.9Underperforming −−	2	-8.0	-7.0	0:3 vs Vegalta Sendai (+1.5)	1:0 vs Tochigi SC (-1.9)
44	Kofu	41	45	62.0	-17.0Underperforming −−	5	-6.8	-10.2	1:2 vs Machida (+2.0)	1:0 vs Grulla Morioka (-2.0)