Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-10 · 01:00 CET
WDLDW
WLWDWThe score model makes an Athletico-PR win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.0% vs 72.9% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletico-PR 1.48 – 0.97 Atletico-MG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR win | 48.6% | 45.3% | +3.3% |
| Draw | 27.1% | 29.2% | -2.1% |
| Atletico-MG win | 24.3% | 25.5% | -1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 46.8% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 27.1% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 52.0% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 32.1% | -1.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletico-PR 35.4 / Atletico-MG 52.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.