Athletico-PR vs Fluminense
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
WDLDW
WDWLWThe score model made an Athletico-PR win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletico-PR 1.30 – 0.90 Fluminense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR win | 45.3% | 43.2% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 29.7% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Fluminense win | 25.3% | 27.1% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 42.0% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.1% | 22.2% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 48.1% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 28.9% | -2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletico-PR 34.3 / Fluminense 52.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.