Liga 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Romania · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Dinamo Bucuresti (62%), Univ. Craiova (30%), FC Rapid Bucuresti (6%). 64 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 29 | 6255–69 | 62% | 35 from 18 (1.94/game) |
| Univ. Craiova | 11 | 23 | 5952–65 | 30% | 41 from 19 (2.16/game) |
| FC Rapid Bucuresti | 11 | 24 | 5447–60 | 6% | 40 from 18 (2.22/game) |
| U. Cluj | 11 | 18 | 4942–56 | 1% | 46 from 19 (2.42/game) |
Below 1%: CFR Cluj, FCSB, Farul Constanta, Corvinul, Petrolul, FC Botosani, Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe, UTA Arad, FC Arges, Otelul, FC Voluntari, Csikszereda M. Ciuc.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 148 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).