The season in numbers
Blindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Csikszereda M. Ciuc produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 36.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
FC Arges – FC Botosani2026-09-13 12:00Under 2.5 ✓73.6%vs 59.5%▲ +14.1%- FCSB – Petrolul2026-09-14 18:00Under 2.5 ✓56.3%vs 47.8%▲ +8.4%
- FC Rapid Bucuresti – FC Voluntari2026-09-12 18:30Over 1.5 HT41.7%vs 38.5%▲ +3.2%
- U. Cluj – Otelul2026-09-14 15:00Under 2.5 ✓53.4%vs 51.0%▲ +2.3%
- Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe – CFR Cluj2026-09-12 15:30Over 1.5 HT33.2%vs 32.4%▲ +0.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Arges– FC Botosani | 2026-09-13 | 12:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 73.6% | 59.5% | ▲ +14.1% | 1.68 | |
| 2 |  FCSB– Petrolul | 2026-09-14 | 18:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 56.3% | 47.8% | ▲ +8.4% | 2.09 | |
| 3 |  FC Rapid Bucuresti– FC Voluntari | 2026-09-12 | 18:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 41.7% | 38.5% | ▲ +3.2% | 2.60 | |
| 4 |  U. Cluj– Otelul | 2026-09-14 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 53.4% | 51.0% | ▲ +2.3% | 1.96 | |
| 5 |  Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe– CFR Cluj | 2026-09-12 | 15:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 33.2% | 32.4% | ▲ +0.9% | 3.09 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Liga 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Dinamo Bucuresti win the 2026-2027 title in 41% of them, projecting ~55 points; Univ. Craiova are next at 31%. At the other end, Csikszereda M. Ciuc finish in the bottom three in 99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 17 | 55 | 48–62 | 41% | 91% | <1% |
| 2 |  Univ. Craiova | 14 | 53 | 46–61 | 31% | 85% | <1% |
| 3 | FC Rapid Bucuresti | 15 | 51 | 43–58 | 15% | 70% | <1% |
| 4 | CFR Cluj | 10 | 47 | 40–55 | 6% | 47% | <1% |
| 5 | FCSB | 11 | 45 | 37–52 | 2% | 30% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | FC Botosani | 10 | 37 | 29–44 | <1% | 3% | 23% |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 8 | 29 | 22–36 | — | <1% | 78% |
| 16 |  Csikszereda M. Ciuc | 1 | 20 | 13–27 | — | — | 99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 177 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/romania/superliga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Liga 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/romania/superliga">Liga 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Liga 1 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 17 | 12.8 | +4.2 | |
| 2 | FC Rapid Bucuresti | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 | |
| 3 | Petrolul | 15 | 8.2 | +6.8 | |
| 4 | Univ. Craiova | 14 | 15.0 | -1.0 | |
| 5 |  Farul Constanta | 11 | 10.9 | +0.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | U. Cluj | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | |
| 16 | Csikszereda M. Ciuc | 1 | 7.3 | -6.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+