Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Farul Constanta – Petrolul+11.7%
Under 2.5 · data 62% vs market 50%
Fastest starters
FCSB31%
4 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
FC Botosani36%
5 of their 14 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+13.7%Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +13.7% at market prices across 79 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-7.8 ptsCsikszereda M. Ciuc produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
30%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 34.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Farul Constanta – Petrolul2026-10-10 17:00Under 2.5Model 61.9%Implied 50.3%▲ +11.7%- FC Arges – CFR Cluj2026-10-10 17:00Under 2.5Model 67.8%Implied 60.6%▲ +7.2%
- FC Botosani – UTA Arad2026-10-10 14:15Under 2.5Model 55.2%Implied 49.0%▲ +6.2%
- CFR Cluj – U. Cluj2026-10-08 17:30Home winModel 48.7%Implied 42.6%▲ +6.2%
- Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe – Dinamo Bucuresti2026-10-09 18:00Under 2.5Model 62.7%Implied 56.8%▲ +5.9%
- U. Cluj – FC Rapid Bucuresti2026-10-10 17:00Home winModel 44.4%Implied 38.9%▲ +5.5%
- FCSB – Otelul2026-10-10 18:30Under 2.5Model 47.2%Implied 44.2%▲ +2.9%
- Csikszereda M. Ciuc – Univ. Craiova2026-10-10 17:00Home winModel 14.2%Implied 12.3%▲ +2.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Farul Constanta– Petrolul | 2026-10-10 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 61.9% | 50.3% | ▲ +11.7% | 1.99 |
| 2 |  FC Arges– CFR Cluj | 2026-10-10 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 67.8% | 60.6% | ▲ +7.2% | 1.65 |
| 3 |  FC Botosani– UTA Arad | 2026-10-10 | 14:15 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 49.0% | ▲ +6.2% | 2.04 |
| 4 | CFR Cluj– U. Cluj | 2026-10-08 | 17:30 | Home win | 48.7% | 42.6% | ▲ +6.2% | 2.35 |
| 5 |  Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe– Dinamo Bucuresti | 2026-10-09 | 18:00 | Under 2.5 | 62.7% | 56.8% | ▲ +5.9% | 1.76 |
| 6 | U. Cluj– FC Rapid Bucuresti | 2026-10-10 | 17:00 | Home win | 44.4% | 38.9% | ▲ +5.5% | 2.57 |
| 7 |  FCSB– Otelul | 2026-10-10 | 18:30 | Under 2.5 | 47.2% | 44.2% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.26 |
| 8 |  Csikszereda M. Ciuc– Univ. Craiova | 2026-10-10 | 17:00 | Home win | 14.2% | 12.3% | ▲ +2.0% | 8.14 |
Add Liga 1 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Liga 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Dinamo Bucuresti win the 2026-2027 title in 46% of them, projecting ~59 points; Univ. Craiova are next at 38%. At the other end, Csikszereda M. Ciuc finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 23 | 59 | 51–66 | 46% | 96% | — |
| 2 | Univ. Craiova | 20 | 57 | 50–64 | 38% | 95% | — |
| 3 | FC Rapid Bucuresti | 21 | 53 | 46–60 | 11% | 80% | — |
| 4 | U. Cluj | 15 | 48 | 40–55 | 3% | 46% | <1% |
| 5 | CFR Cluj | 13 | 47 | 39–54 | 2% | 36% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Otelul | 10 | 35 | 29–42 | — | <1% | 26% |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 8 | 27 | 20–33 | — | <1% | 87% |
| 16 | Csikszereda M. Ciuc | 1 | 17 | 11–24 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 161 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Liga 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +13.7%
at market prices · 79 matcheschart →
Home wins in Liga 1, 2026-2027: across 79 matches the market's prices paid out +13.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −5.5%
at market prices · 79 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Liga 1, 2026-2027: across 79 matches the market's prices paid out −5.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −8.4%
at market prices · 79 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Liga 1, 2026-2027: across 79 matches the market's prices paid out −8.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −13.9%
at market prices · 79 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Liga 1, 2026-2027: across 79 matches the market's prices paid out −13.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −14.3%
at market prices · 79 matcheschart →
Draws in Liga 1, 2026-2027: across 79 matches the market's prices paid out −14.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −18.6%
at market prices · 79 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Liga 1, 2026-2027: across 79 matches the market's prices paid out −18.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −49.1%
at market prices · 79 matcheschart →
Away wins in Liga 1, 2026-2027: across 79 matches the market's prices paid out −49.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 23 | 16.8 | +6.2 | |
| 2 | FC Rapid Bucuresti | 21 | 16.3 | +4.7 | |
| 3 | Univ. Craiova | 20 | 18.8 | +1.2 | |
| 4 | Petrolul | 19 | 10.9 | +8.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 | U. Cluj | 15 | 13.4 | +1.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Otelul | 10 | 11.7 | -1.7 | |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 8 | 11.1 | -3.1 | |
| 16 | Csikszereda M. Ciuc | 1 | 8.8 | -7.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+