Ponferradina – Real Aviles

Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	6.05	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.05	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.49	−11.2%
Betfair (net)	4.42	−12.5%

€79 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.05	5.05	4.42	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.44	3.37	3.28	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.64	1.98	1.94	—
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.89	2.43	2.23	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.13	1.70	1.68	1.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.90	3.77	3.33	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.52	1.36	1.31	1.30
Both teams to score · No	2.02	1.93	1.87	1.68
Both teams to score · Yes	1.98	2.07	1.95	1.96

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.