CD Lugo – UD Logrones

Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 18:30 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.67	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.50	−6.5%
Betfair (net)	2.56	−4.4%
bet365	2.32	−13.3%

€17 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	2.67	2.56	2.32
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.46	3.23	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.96	2.90	2.55
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	2.08	1.96	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	1.92	1.86	1.86
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	3.25	2.88	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.44	1.44	1.37
Both teams to score · No	—	2.22	2.12	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.82	1.73	1.68

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.