Athletic Bilbao B – Real Union de Irun

Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 10:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.19	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.07	−5.4%
Betfair (net)	2.10	−4.0%
bet365	1.79	−18.2%

€22 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	3.54	3.33	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.84	3.66	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.19	2.10	1.79
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.80	1.71	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.25	2.18	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.17	2.84	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.46	1.48	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.76	2.56	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.57	1.54	1.46
Both teams to score · No	—	2.55	2.31	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.64	1.61	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.