Cultural Leonesa – Arenas Getxo

Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · full time 4-1 (HT 2-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	5.66	ref
Pinnacle fair	7.37	ruler
Pinnacle offered	6.21	−15.8%
Betfair (net)	5.46	−25.9%
bet365	5.25	−28.8%

€9 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.66	7.37	5.46	5.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.91	4.57	4.04	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.76	1.55	1.51	1.46
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.28	1.80	1.68	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.78	2.25	2.15	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.38	2.99	2.73	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.30	1.50	1.44	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.20	2.75	2.48	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.46	1.57	1.48	1.49
Both teams to score · No	1.81	2.09	1.85	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	2.23	1.92	1.83	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.