Treviso – Ospitaletto

Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.09	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.00	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.82	−6.1%
Betfair (net)	2.90	−3.5%
bet365	3.00	−0.1%

€57 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.60	3.42	3.19	2.82
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.09	3.00	2.90	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.51	2.67	2.52	2.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.15	2.46	2.31	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.47	1.69	1.64	1.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	5.70	3.72	3.33	3.40
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.21	1.37	1.35	1.27
Both teams to score · No	1.66	1.97	1.92	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	2.52	2.03	1.90	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.