Trento – Folgore Caratese

Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.67	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.66	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.61	−3.2%
Betfair (net)	1.64	−1.6%
bet365	1.51	−9.2%

€15 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.83	6.37	5.94	5.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.39	4.14	3.75	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.67	1.66	1.64	1.51
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.81	2.03	1.99	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.23	1.97	1.84	1.76
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.65	3.17	2.95	2.75
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.38	1.46	1.43	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.13	2.00	1.83	1.68
Both teams to score · Yes	1.89	2.00	1.99	1.96

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.