Varnsdorf – Hradec Kralove B

3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.09	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.79	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.38	−10.9%
Betfair (net)	3.94	+4.0%
bet365	3.90	+2.8%

€14 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-3 min	3 min	+4.0%	€14	3.94	+4.0%	lost

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.59	4.93	4.04	—	0
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.09	3.79	3.94	3.90	3
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.71	1.87	1.81	—	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.64	1.68	1.62	1.53	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.58	2.47	2.31	2.20	0
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.57	2.68	2.53	—	0
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.64	1.60	1.56	—	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.19	2.55	2.37	2.20	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.84	1.65	1.60	1.53	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.