North East Utd – Mohun Bagan

ISL, India · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.84	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.41	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.22	−5.5%
Betfair (net)	3.38	−0.9%
bet365	3.40	−0.2%

€3 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.76	2.13	2.01	1.91
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.84	3.41	3.38	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	5.78	4.21	3.94	3.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.82	2.07	1.98	1.88
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.21	1.94	1.91	1.83
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.08	3.74	3.43	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.48	1.37	1.36	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.10	3.23	2.86	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.48	1.45	1.46	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.23	2.20	2.08	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	1.81	1.83	1.76	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.