Churchill Brothers SC – Mumbai City

ISL, India · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.80	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.43	−7.8%
Betfair (net)	4.61	−4.1%
bet365	4.20	−12.6%

€53 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	1.81	1.75	1.58
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.17	3.80	3.80
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	4.80	4.61	4.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.94	1.89	1.82
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.07	1.95	1.92
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.48	3.33	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.40	1.37	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	3.10	2.82	2.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.48	1.47	1.41
Both teams to score · No	—	2.11	2.01	1.80
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.90	1.84	1.80

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.