Mezokovesd-Zsory – Ajka

Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.18	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.02	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.90	−5.8%
Betfair (net)	1.89	−6.1%
bet365	1.92	−4.8%

€12 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.92	4.49	4.13	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.50	3.55	3.38	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.18	2.02	1.89	1.92
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.63	2.12	2.02	1.97
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.61	1.89	1.81	1.77
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.29	3.43	3.04	—
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.44	1.41	1.40	—

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.