Al Fayha – Al Riyadh

Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:40 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.33	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.29	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.12	−5.3%
Betfair (net)	3.18	−3.3%
bet365	3.25	−1.3%

€15 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.66	3.69	3.56	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.33	3.29	3.19	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.34	2.35	2.22	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.26	2.08	2.02	1.91
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.79	1.92	1.85	1.81
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.34	3.76	3.61	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.30	1.36	1.32	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.63	3.26	2.95	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.38	1.44	1.43	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.02	2.30	2.10	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	1.98	1.77	1.77	1.68

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.