Al Ittihad – El Gouna

Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.53	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.90	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.70	−6.9%
Betfair (net)	2.79	−3.9%
bet365	2.82	−2.8%

€16 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.54	5.08	4.42	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	2.53	2.90	2.79	2.82
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.10	2.18	2.10	1.91
Over/under 2.5 · Over	4.80	3.17	2.94	2.75
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.26	1.46	1.43	1.37
Over/under 3.5 · Over	13.42	7.75	6.32	5.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.08	1.15	1.13	1.10
Both teams to score · No	1.46	1.64	1.63	1.49
Both teams to score · Yes	3.19	2.55	2.23	2.32

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.