El Qanah FC – Al-Masry

Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.73	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.68	−2.7%
Betfair (net)	1.67	−3.8%
bet365	1.57	−9.3%

€41 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	1.73	1.67	1.57
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.70	3.47	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	6.59	6.32	5.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	2.36	2.20	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	1.73	1.71	1.62
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	4.75	4.16	4.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.27	1.26	1.19
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	3.75	3.28	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.36	1.35	1.30
Both teams to score · No	—	1.83	1.77	1.62
Both teams to score · Yes	—	2.21	2.10	2.05

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.