Imisli FK – Qarabag FK

Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.35	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.31	−2.8%
Betfair (net)	1.32	−2.1%
bet365	1.27	−6.1%

€1389 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	1.35	1.32	1.27
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	5.99	5.37	4.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	10.68	11.45	8.00
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.79	1.70	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.26	2.23	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.09	2.79	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.48	1.48	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.79	2.52	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.56	1.57	1.49
Both teams to score · No	—	1.78	1.76	1.63
Both teams to score · Yes	—	2.27	2.08	2.10

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.