Safa Baku – Turan Tovuz

Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.62	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.67	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.30	−10.0%
Betfair (net)	3.80	+3.7%
bet365	3.60	−1.8%

€11 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-19 min	19 min	+5.5%	€12	3.85	+5.0%	lost

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.81	1.63	1.58	1.49	0
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.62	3.67	3.80	3.60	19
Full time 1X2 · Home	5.81	8.89	6.89	5.75	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.15	2.08	1.97	1.91	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.46	1.92	1.91	1.81	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	5.43	3.24	2.90	2.70	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.23	1.45	1.43	1.37	0
Both teams to score · No	1.51	1.93	1.83	1.68	0
Both teams to score · Yes	2.94	2.07	2.01	1.96	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.