Chongqing Tonglianglong FC – Shandong Taishan FC

Super League, China · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:35 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.66	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.57	−3.2%
Betfair (net)	2.58	−3.0%
bet365	2.40	−9.6%

€379 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	2.96	2.77	2.65
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.50	3.33	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.66	2.58	2.40
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.99	1.95	1.91
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.01	1.94	1.81
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.51	3.33	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.40	1.37	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	3.09	2.82	2.75
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.48	1.48	1.37
Both teams to score · No	—	2.34	2.22	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.75	1.71	1.71

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.