TSV Havelse – FC Wurzburger Kickers

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 17:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.81	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.68	−4.5%
Betfair (net)	2.73	−2.8%
bet365	2.65	−5.6%

€9 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	2.44	2.35	2.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.29	3.85	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.81	2.73	2.65
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.65	1.60	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.55	2.42	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	2.68	2.46	2.37
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.60	1.58	1.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.55	2.31	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.65	1.63	1.53
Both teams to score · No	—	2.69	2.58	2.45
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.59	1.55	1.46

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.