Saarbrucken – Duisburg

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 2-4 (HT 0-3) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.85	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.60	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.49	−4.2%
Betfair (net)	2.54	−2.3%
bet365	2.32	−10.8%

€97 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.85	2.60	2.54	2.32
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.91	3.88	3.66	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.54	2.80	2.60	2.50
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.74	1.68	1.63	1.57
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.34	2.46	2.37	2.15
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.86	2.75	2.60	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.54	1.57	1.54	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.51	2.62	2.37	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.66	1.62	1.61	1.49
Both teams to score · No	2.54	2.78	2.58	2.32
Both teams to score · Yes	1.65	1.56	1.55	1.49

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.