Rot-Weiss Essen – Fortuna Cologne

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 17:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.43	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.05	−8.6%
Betfair (net)	4.42	−0.3%
bet365	4.10	−7.5%

€156 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	7.20	6.13	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.43	4.42	4.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	1.57	1.54	1.42
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.65	1.59	1.50
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.53	2.52	2.40
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	2.58	2.44	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.63	1.59	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.51	2.33	2.15
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.66	1.64	1.57
Both teams to score · No	—	2.36	2.22	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.74	1.70	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.