SC Preussen 06 Munster – Fortuna Dusseldorf

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 17:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.45	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.35	−4.0%
Betfair (net)	2.39	−2.5%
bet365	2.30	−6.0%

€72 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	2.45	2.39	2.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.83	3.56	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	3.03	2.90	2.62
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.86	1.79	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.16	2.12	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.22	2.95	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.45	1.45	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.89	2.60	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.53	1.52	1.46
Both teams to score · No	—	2.46	2.37	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.68	1.64	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.