Fortuna Dusseldorf – SC Verl

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 17:30 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.92	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.86	−3.2%
Betfair (net)	1.93	+0.4%
bet365	1.77	−8.0%

€27 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	4.18	3.85	3.60
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.15	3.75	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	1.92	1.93	1.77
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.65	1.62	1.54
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.55	2.42	2.35
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	2.63	2.53	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.61	1.58	1.49
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.49	2.39	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.67	1.63	1.53
Both teams to score · No	—	2.72	2.44	2.32
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.58	1.60	1.49

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.