Nautico – Vila Nova FC

Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 20:30 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-2) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.26	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.78	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.69	−3.4%
Betfair (net)	2.73	−2.0%
bet365	2.57	−7.7%

€458 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.26	2.78	2.73	2.57
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.75	3.41	3.19	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.35	2.88	2.77	2.75
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.25	2.32	2.20	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.80	1.76	1.72	1.62
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.29	4.60	4.13	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.30	1.28	1.28	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.25	3.65	3.28	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.44	1.38	1.36	1.30
Both teams to score · No	1.98	2.00	1.97	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	2.02	2.00	1.87	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.