Botafogo SP – Ceara

Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.05	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.83	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.65	−4.6%
Betfair (net)	3.56	−6.8%
bet365	3.50	−8.5%

€252 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.05	3.83	3.56	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.54	3.15	3.04	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.56	2.37	2.27	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.59	2.81	2.63	2.45
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.63	1.55	1.54	1.46
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.34	5.98	5.37	4.33
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.23	1.20	1.19	1.17
Both teams to score · No	1.81	1.81	1.76	1.62
Both teams to score · Yes	2.23	2.24	2.14	2.05

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.