Chapecoense SC – CA Paranaense PR

Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 22:30 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.87	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.84	−1.8%
Betfair (net)	1.84	−2.0%
bet365	1.76	−6.1%

€445 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	1.87	1.84	1.76
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.19	3.85	3.80
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	4.39	4.23	4.33
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.74	1.66	1.57
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.36	2.33	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	2.92	2.75	2.70
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.52	1.51	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.66	2.46	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.60	1.59	1.49
Both teams to score · No	—	2.44	2.39	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.69	1.64	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.