Bahia – Mirassol

Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.09	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.73	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.70	−1.7%
Betfair (net)	1.68	−2.6%
bet365	1.61	−6.9%

€1754 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.85	5.22	4.89	5.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.81	4.35	4.13	3.90
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.09	1.73	1.68	1.61
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.03	1.68	1.63	1.56
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.97	2.46	2.40	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.65	2.75	2.63	2.45
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.38	1.57	1.54	1.49
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.42	2.52	2.37	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.70	1.66	1.63	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.12	2.46	2.31	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	1.89	1.69	1.65	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.