Coritiba – Botafogo RJ

Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.96	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.62	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.51	−3.0%
Betfair (net)	3.47	−4.1%
bet365	3.40	−6.1%

€1525 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.39	2.56	2.46	2.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.96	3.62	3.47	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.04	3.01	2.88	2.70
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.75	1.76	1.73	1.57
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.33	2.32	2.20	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.88	2.91	2.82	2.45
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.53	1.52	1.48	1.49
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.20	2.70	2.50	2.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.46	1.59	1.57	1.47
Both teams to score · No	2.51	2.65	2.48	2.37
Both teams to score · Yes	1.66	1.60	1.60	1.50

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.