Atletico-MG – Santos

Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.00	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.61	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.55	−2.3%
Betfair (net)	2.52	−3.5%
bet365	2.55	−2.3%

€247 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.13	2.90	2.82	2.70
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.87	3.67	3.42	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.00	2.61	2.52	2.55
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.01	1.89	1.84	1.78
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.99	2.13	2.03	1.98
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.58	3.37	3.16	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.39	1.42	1.40	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.61	2.98	2.69	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.38	1.50	1.51	1.41
Both teams to score · No	2.11	2.39	2.27	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	1.90	1.72	1.68	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.