Sao Paulo – Vitoria

Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.94	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.79	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.76	−1.7%
Betfair (net)	1.76	−1.6%
bet365	1.66	−7.2%

€752 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.80	5.77	5.37	5.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.61	3.74	3.56	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.94	1.79	1.76	1.66
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.48	2.29	2.20	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.68	1.78	1.74	1.62
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.99	4.43	4.16	3.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.25	1.29	1.28	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.57	3.58	3.23	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.39	1.39	1.38	1.30
Both teams to score · No	1.79	1.84	1.84	1.71
Both teams to score · Yes	2.27	2.19	2.03	1.96

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.