Septemvri Sofia – Dunav Ruse

Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · full time 2-3 (HT 2-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.73	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.73	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.52	−5.7%
Betfair (net)	3.71	−0.7%
bet365	3.50	−6.3%

€94 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.73	3.73	3.71	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.82	3.42	3.14	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.69	2.27	2.20	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.96	2.32	2.25	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.04	1.76	1.68	1.62
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.46	4.60	4.27	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.41	1.28	1.25	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.16	3.67	3.33	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.32	1.37	1.36	1.30
Both teams to score · No	2.24	2.02	1.93	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	1.80	1.98	1.91	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.