Cherno More – Levski Sofia

Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.78	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.56	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.51	−2.7%
Betfair (net)	1.55	−0.4%
bet365	1.49	−4.3%

€148 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.78	1.56	1.55	1.49
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.94	4.35	3.94	3.80
Full time 1X2 · Home	5.41	7.83	7.46	7.00
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.31	2.24	2.19	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.76	1.81	1.72	1.62
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.49	4.43	4.16	4.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.29	1.29	1.27	1.19
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	5.36	3.56	3.23	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.23	1.39	1.37	1.30
Both teams to score · No	1.80	1.77	1.69	1.57
Both teams to score · Yes	2.26	2.31	2.23	2.15

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.