Leiria – Academica

Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.86	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.18	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.11	−3.1%
Betfair (net)	2.16	−0.8%
bet365	1.96	−10.0%

€286 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.98	3.69	3.38	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.73	3.71	3.42	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.86	2.18	2.16	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.61	1.95	1.87	1.81
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.64	2.05	2.01	1.91
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.51	3.59	3.20	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.66	1.39	1.38	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.41	3.13	2.84	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.71	1.47	1.46	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.56	2.25	2.14	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	1.64	1.80	1.71	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.