SL Benfica – Vitoria SC Guimaraes

Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 17:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.21	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.19	−1.3%
Betfair (net)	1.22	+0.7%
bet365	1.19	−1.7%

€1922 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	15.86	13.82	12.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	9.05	7.65	6.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	1.21	1.22	1.19
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.44	1.43	1.44
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	3.27	3.09	2.60
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	2.17	2.10	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.85	1.80	1.68
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.21	2.03	2.01
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.83	1.84	1.71
Both teams to score · No	—	1.98	1.93	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	—	2.02	1.95	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.