Rio Ave – Nacional

Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · full time 3-2 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.65	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.47	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.34	−3.7%
Betfair (net)	3.33	−4.1%
bet365	3.30	−4.8%

€66 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.65	4.06	3.75	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.65	3.47	3.33	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.86	2.15	2.10	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.25	2.03	1.94	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.80	1.97	1.94	1.91
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.28	3.64	3.47	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.30	1.38	1.36	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.17	3.18	2.88	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.41
Both teams to score · No	2.00	2.25	2.14	2.01
Both teams to score · Yes	2.00	1.80	1.76	1.66

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.